With the general elections fast approaching, Myanmar’s ethnic parties could play kingmakers for the next administration. The opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, is favoured to outperform Thein Sein’s incumbent Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in the general election. However, the USDP is boosted by its alliance to the military, also known as the Tatmadaw, which has a constitutionally mandated 25% representation in both houses of parliament. Therefore, support from ethnic parties could be crucial if neither national party gains an outright majority.
Ethnic minority constituencies make up 31% of the combined total of seats in both houses of parliament (as shown in the map below). The NLD will struggle to win seats against many of the ethnic minority parties in their home constituencies. For example, in Rakhine state – which accounts for 17 seats in the lower house and 12 in the upper house - the Rakhine Nationalities Development Party (RNDP) is likely to fare better than either of the national parties.
Due to decades of civil war and abuse at the hands of the Tatmadaw, many ethnic parties are wary of the USDP’s close ties to the military. However, the NLD also has strained relations with many of the ethnic parties due to its views on religious freedom and decision to field candidates in ethnic constituencies.