Myanmar’s government is currently in the process of securing a single nationwide lasting peace agreement with all insurgent groups. Up to 16 armed ethnic groups are participating in peace negotiations under the umbrella organisation ‘National Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT). Between December 2013 and March 2014, meetings between the government and the NCCT appeared to indicate growing confidence in the peace process.
Failure to reach a durable peace agreement will limit the government’s ability to develop infrastructure links to China and attract investment in plentiful natural resources in the conflict regions. Furthermore, both the army and ethnic militias have supported their operations through illicit trade such as illegal jade, logging and opium cultivation along the borders of China, Thailand and Laos. Vested interests in these trades, on both sides of the conflict, are likely to harm the business environment – even if the conflict is resolved. In order to be durable, any future peace agreement will need to aptly address the elimination of illicit trade and the sharing of natural resources – with dedicated cooperation on both sides.